All this is just speculation. There is nothing official.
Varen Aquilarios, the last of the Five Companions has not returned in the last expansions. That's what a lot of players say ... Although I'm one of those who thinks Varen Aquilarios is not meant to return since he is the canonical choice of the final sacrifice in the Main Story of Elder Scrolls Online.
Let's say Varen Aquilarios has to come back. Colovia will naturally be the territory that will see him return. The impresario awards for the year 2022 evoke things related to Akatosh. Akatosh, leader of the Eight Divines whose Colovian people are certainly the most devout in Tamriel. Varen, once Duke of Chorrol, had taken up arms in the name of the Eight to dethrone Emperor Leovic who had legalized the cult of Daedra in the Empire of Cyrodiil.
If Akatosh reminds me of the Empire and more specifically of Colovia, I very much doubt the next region. Blame it on a new Celestial-themed Crate Season coming very soon. At the same period of the previous year, we had the Crates of Potentate who announced a theme on Cyrodiil in 2021. Except, the Celestials evoke Hammerfell.
I'm not one of those who thinks that the Chapter 2022 region will be 100% in territory outside of Tamriel. I think the main zone will be a region of Tamriel and that there will be a small unknown zone which will be entitled to its own development during DLC Q4. The unknown zone in question, could make a small appearance in the Chapter either by portals (as in Blackwood) or in a simultaneous zone (as in Greymoor).
The developers are talking about an unexpected place. Logically, we are going to Hammerfell next year. The opposite would be surprising (and confusing as many players hope to complete 100% regions of Tamriel first before going elsewhere).
If it's not Hammerfell.. Could it be Colovia that I predict for 2023? This would be unexpected since it is an imperial territory like Blackwood even if ESO makes me say that the word imperial is obsolete and that we must speak of Colovian or Nibenese.
Lyris had mentioned Skingrad in Markarth ... Becoming the first capital city clue for the next capital to be false. And this information is no longer relevant since it was to concern 2021. The fact that the information becomes official for 2022 would be a surprise. And this would allow developers to take a slight "break" at the level of structures before catching up with visual novelties from 2023 (Martelfell, Telvanni ...).
In Morrowind, the Clavicus Vile and Barbas were talking about the Clockwork City. We therefore had the Clockwork City in which Nocturnal speaks to us of Summerset. Thus appeared Summerset. With Summerset, Razum dar was talking about coming back home (so in Elsweyr). We had Elsweyr where Abnur Tharn said he was going to investigate in Pellitine. We had southern Elsweyr with Dragonhold. In Dragonhold, Cadwell told us about Solitude. Solitude appears in Greymoor and the course is set for the Reach (Fridelja talks about the reachmens).. And we had the Reach with Markarth ... Lyris announces Skingrad to us but we never had Skingrad afterwards. Thus becoming the first clue in a story's conclusion dialogue to be wrong.
I will be very happy if Skingrad comes out in 2022. But I absolutely do not believe it and maintain the idea of Hammerfell.
Regarding Varen, he could come back but his role seems quite unknown to me. Chorrol is in the PvP zone, and Colovia should give us Skingrad but also Sutch and maybe Sarchal. The profile of Count of Skingrad is quite antagonistic and I wonder if there will be a confrontation ...
Maybe even the ancestral help of King Rislav of Skingrad? To aid Varen in the interests of the Eight against the Daedric enemy (I do not know the extent of the Count's involvement in the Daedric plot within the army ranks. The West Weald Legion he sends has been corrupted and ally with Molag Bal).
If the idea of a Varen who sits on the throne of Skingrad in place of a corrupt Calantius, to make Skingrad the capital of Colovia and the showcase of the Empire and the Eight is interesting to me, always seems like a bad idea to bring back our late emperor. This plot will even make us explore a greater evil that would directly affect Akatosh .. Corrupted by Colovians (Count Calantius of Skingrad for example) who turned away from the Eight.