Anniversary box drop rates

Vildebill

I've been doing writs on 14 characters all the days for the event, plus some pledges here and there, and the occasional other daily. All in all I get around 100 boxes each day, so I'd say my conclusions might be statistically okay.

What I'm seeing is that the drop rate for motifs has been SEVERELY lowered the last like 5 days or so. The first days I probably got 20-30 motifs, and 10-20 recipes, but the last days I've gotten like maximum 10 motifs a day, often less. With so many boxes opened over all these days this doesn't seem like some RNG thing for me. My friends who do what I do says the're experiencing the same thing.

Anyone else that opens a lot of boxes seeing this as well? Is there some statement somewhere that the drop rate was lowered, or that there's some maximum for an account over the event? Because I find it highly unlikely that this is just bad luck.

Neoealth

I've noticed the same. But it's probably just our bad RNG.

Curious_Death

me2... 11 characters... so 77 boxes... yesterday 2 motifs... 1st week +10 easy...
but yeah maybe rng

fierackas

16 toons plus a few daillies, seems a bit hit and miss but I'm sure the rarer/newer ones have stopped dropping so much

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO

With 100+ boxes per day opened since the event started, I'd say they are tweaking the drop rates as we go in order not to have an unreasonable or fatal impact on the in-game market for motifs. I got a barrage of motifs the first day, but now the drop rate seems to have decreased quite a bit. The style pages, however, have become annoyingly common in the past few days. I frequently get two in one box, and yesterday I collected about 5 style pages per day per character by just doing the 7 crafting writs. I can't even give them away now, and my guild bank is filling up with them because they don't stack and can't be stored in personal banks. Whatever style pages i get from now on will have to be destroyed.

Neoealth

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO wrote: »

With 100+ boxes per day opened since the event started, I'd say they are tweaking the drop rates as we go in order not to have an unreasonable or fatal impact on the in-game market for motifs. I got a barrage of motifs the first day, but now the drop rate seems to have decreased quite a bit. The style pages, however, have become annoyingly common in the past few days. I frequently get two in one box, and yesterday I collected about 5 style pages per day per character by just doing the 7 crafting writs. I can't even give them away now, and my guild bank is filling up with them because they don't stack and can't be stored in personal banks. Whatever style pages i get from now on will have to be destroyed.

Oh yeah the yellow style pages are so common now, i'm having to dump them all in the guild banks or give them away to random people. Even had to out right delete some of them. The prices they sell for have plummeted so not even worth the guild trader sell space.

FierceSam

While I now thoroughly loathe the gold style page drops (I can’t even give them away and rate a ‘gold’ box as a wasted box) we are very much not the target audience for these...

The audience for these are the numerous solo players who might be doing a handful of boxes a day... trying to ensure that they have at least the bulk of the motifs by the end of the event.

And I’d much rather it was that way... than having a more limited supply and players thinking of them as ways to make gold.

It’s a celebration event after all.

Stay safe and have fun

tuxon

Motif drop rate was definitely lowered...I keep getting water and wax from 1 box and that's it

Vildebill

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO wrote: »

With 100+ boxes per day opened since the event started, I'd say they are tweaking the drop rates as we go in order not to have an unreasonable or fatal impact on the in-game market for motifs. I got a barrage of motifs the first day, but now the drop rate seems to have decreased quite a bit. The style pages, however, have become annoyingly common in the past few days. I frequently get two in one box, and yesterday I collected about 5 style pages per day per character by just doing the 7 crafting writs. I can't even give them away now, and my guild bank is filling up with them because they don't stack and can't be stored in personal banks. Whatever style pages i get from now on will have to be destroyed.

You describe my situation on the spot. And I've deleted the style pages since like day 3 or something, if some friend wants I give away of course, otherwise it's just a waste of time.

cheemers

I've not noticed any change in motif drop rate (responding just to try and reduce confirmation bias in this thread).

Vildebill

cheemers wrote: »

I've not noticed any change in motif drop rate (responding just to try and reduce confirmation bias in this thread).

Always good to hear another opinion How many boxes are you opening each day?

Truewavesound

Drops for motifs definitely dropped for me in the last couple of days. I am opening about 80+ boxes a day.

Was getting loads at start of the event. I made millions.

code65536

I have an addon (not public; for my own personal use) that logs everything that that I've gotten out of these boxes. I'm doing around ~300 boxes per day (combined across both NA and EU servers and I have alt accounts doing writs too).

The last time I analyzed the data (which was a couple of nights ago), ~15% of boxes contained a crafting motif, ~10% of boxes contained a Companion style page, and ~10% of boxes contained a Jephrine style page. These drop rates are reasonably stable. There are of course fluctuations due to RNG, but they are within the range that I'd expect for a relatively small sample size.*

* While 300/day is a large number of boxes for this event, for the purposes of drawing statistical conclusions, even 300 is still small. For example, if I look at just what I get on EU, which is around 90/day, there was one day where I was around only 10% for motifs, but with just 90/day the difference between 10% and 15% is only 4-5 pages and can easily be swung by a relatively short lucky or unlucky streak.

carlos424

This seems to be the pattern in years past as well. When everyone was obsessing over worm cult, the drop rates seemed higher the first couple of days of the event, then noticeably decreased. Seems to be happening for too many people to simply be rng.

code65536

Okay, I just re-processed my logs again, since the last time I had looked at the data was a couple of days ago. For this event, I'm currently at 402 crafting motifs out of 2576 opened boxes, which places me at 15.6%. Two days ago, it was at 15.8%. So basically, after adding two more days worth of boxes to the tally, the overall drop rate has remained the same.

Of those 402 motifs, 283 dropped out of 1779 boxes on NA (15.9%), and 119 dropped out of 797 boxes on EU (14.9%).

As a point of comparison, for last year's event, I got 432 crafting motifs out of 2867 boxes, which works out to 15%. (Note: An earlier version of this post claimed a much lower drop rate for the 2019 event, but I had forgotten that I didn't start using my addon to log the drops until a number of days after the event had started. So adjusting the box count to exclude the boxes that were not logged, I get a drop rate that is consistent with this year's.)

darthgummibear_ESO

I'm about to configure my dustman to automatically delete the gold pages. Way too many, and they are already worthless.

Out of 119 boxes a day I'm getting on average a fair number of motifs and furnishing schematics, but I haven't done an actual count. What we are seeing on a personal level is statistically insignificant. The sample size would need to be far larger than a handful of anecdotal accounts of changing drop rates.

HappyTheCamper

I opened 7 from one of my characters after the daily crafting writs and 4 of my boxes were identical. 20 Bugloss and 5 mundane stones.

Waynerx8

Was thinking the same, getting 25 worms and a lot of normal stuff, motif's have dropped off a lot, give good stuff at the start to hook people then just lower it, see if people notice or just think it's bad RNG luck, ZO$ you do indeed kill everything..

Mancombe_Nosehair

I am being flooded with motifs from the boxes. I haven't noticed any difference.

RefLiberty

Mancombe_Nosehair wrote: »

I am being flooded with motifs from the boxes. I haven't noticed any difference.

I've been getting crap ones from the beginning and haven't noticed any difference too

mikikatze

Me neither. Still getting about the same amount each day (I do 7 crafting dailies on 9 chars and on my main around 12-15 other dailies additionally).

heaven13

It's amusing to see what your brain notices. My boxes feel skewed toward Dreadhorn motifs; I had zero at the start of the event and have gotten at least 7 (possibly more since I am trading with people but 7 is what I currently have).

I've also noticed that my actual daily boxes (Norther/Southern Elsweyr, Summerset) reward coffers haven't had any motifs. I did 10+ yesterday in Summerset alone and got no Sapiarch out of the regular reward boxes.

That said, I have managed to get a substantial number of motifs and will hopefully be able to trade a lot of duplicates for things I am missing.

Universe

doomette

Seems the same to me. Getting loads of the newer motifs and furnishing patterns. Love it, because I don’t focus a lot of farming gold nor do I like farming dungeons over and over again for a chance at a motif chapter I need, so this event allows me to play catch-up.

Mirrrr

I also am getting both on NA and EU plenty of rare motifs and furniture plans. I'm not going to complain.

January1171

I love this event- as a rough estimate I've had somewhere between 500k-1mil worth of motifs drop in the boxes

doomette

And I finally got a Murkmire wind chime, not from a box, but quite cheap at a guild trader. Most wonderful time of the year.

RefLiberty

January1171 wrote: »

I love this event- as a rough estimate I've had somewhere between 500k-1mil worth of motifs drop in the boxes

It depends are you looking at pre-event motif prices or current motif prices, since they dropped significantly.
Which is another good thing wit the event, even if RNG God is not smiling upon you, there are lots of nice one at guild merchants for a somewhat low price (compared as they were pre-event)

bongtokin420insd16

I’ve opened 1100 boxes. 150 motifs, 7 worm cult, 200 corn flower, about 100 of each dragon ingredient, 100 clam gull, 80 mother of pearl. 7 chrome 6 zircon 8 purp recipes 2 nirncrux.

bongtokin420insd16

This lines up pretty well with the drop rates last year. I tracked the style pages for a few days but it became to cumbersome.

mikejezz

I think there's some coding in place, that if you'd got a lot in the beginning then the chance for drops will automatically lower or something.

I got around 8 or 9 motifs the first few days on 9 chars, now I'm lucky if I get one motiff.