The Actual drop rate of the apex.

Gamerscape2007

I'd Credit the person who did research on this, but they wish to be Anonymous, which I can respect. But here's the bottom line.

So the Person who gave me this infomation is a commercial analytics specialist. Yesterday they decided to check out the drop rate of crown gem items since they got radiant apex mount, and they wanted to find the drop rates. They pulled some data from this website https://www.crowncrates.com/ which is collected direct by an addon people use in game. they made some observations about crown crates and their drop rates that y’all might be interested in, averaged across 10 different crate types and 33,227 recorded openings. In this sample size, 208 radiant apex mounts were achieved.

1. radiant apex mounts can only drop from a bonus card.

2. regular apex mounts can only drop from card 2 and the bonus card.

3. Cards 3 and 4 will only drop common or fine rewards.

4. A bonus card will appear 17ish percent of the time. A radiant apex mount has a drop chance of approximately 1% on that card. 6. The average percent chance to achieve a radiant apex mount per crate is 0.6%

https://gyazo.com/3338b46554256f12f3592f7ba50e3f78

https://gyazo.com/c8bbf9c906dc60a548f9cedc3b15f180

We all operate on the assumption that you get 4, maybe 5 shots at a decent thing, but that is far from the truth. Only one of the base card gives you a shot of the apex, and the last two cards are always garbage. In fact, what they do is, Experience scroll have a yellow or purple glow, and there's experience scrolls in each category, you think something good is in the last card, but in reality, there isn't.

I feel like people should know about this because, all and all, this is pretty scummy of Zos to not tell us this infomation, and Anon feel like we should shred on light on this.

acw37162

Smaller sample size my math is 1.5%

And I have gotten a radiant apex from a non-bonus card but it was a gold card.

Crates are garbage, gambling.

With all the marketing and pushiness of casinos with none of the protections or posting the of odds.

Even the crap they give you to make the purchase “worth it” is designed to chew up inventory and promote subbing for the inventory bonuses.

ESO loot boxes are pretty, but it is pretty predatory.

With. 2.5 million new customers not necessary either.

Couple of question for ZOS not players however accurate their data may be:

What is the drop rate of apex and radiant apex mounts?

What is the dollar value of a crown gem?

What is the average dollar value cost for a apex and radiant apex mount?

What is the most any one player has spent? Average spent? Total on each of the forms of crates?

What is the average age of players who purchase boxes?

Have you ever reached out to players or accounts that are at the very top end of the bell curve?

I could go another twenty questions strong but your not going to answer these so I’ll save the effort.

MEBengalsFan2001

acw37162 wrote: »

Smaller sample size my math is 1.5%

And I have gotten a radiant apex from a non-bonus card but it was a gold card.

Crates are garbage, gambling.

With all the marketing and pushiness of casinos with none of the protections or posting the of odds.

Even the crap they give you to make the purchase “worth it” is designed to chew up inventory and promote subbing for the inventory bonuses.

ESO loot boxes are pretty, but it is pretty predatory.

With. 2.5 million new customers not necessary either.

Couple of question for ZOS not players however accurate their data may be:

What is the drop rate of apex and radiant apex mounts?

What is the dollar value of a crown gem?

What is the average dollar value cost for a apex and radiant apex mount?

What is the most any one player has spent? Average spent? Total on each of the forms of crates?

What is the average age of players who purchase boxes?

Have you ever reached out to players or accounts that are at the very top end of the bell curve?

I could go another twenty questions strong but your not going to answer these so I’ll save the effort.

There are laws that congress is trying to pass around games that have chances in boxes. If the law passes; boxes will not be able to be sold to minors and they have to list the % odds for each award in the box.

As someone who been paying attention to this; this will impact the F2P games that are dependent on players buying their boxes to generate revenue. Just the fact of making the boxes illegal to minors will hurt many game companies and force many of them to redesign their revenue model.

As for ESO, I don't mind the crates as there is nothing in them that has an impact to how I play the game. The items in them are cosmetic and that to me is fine. I personally rather them place all of the items in the store rather than make it a gamble by a box.

Gamerscape2007

acw37162 wrote: »

Smaller sample size my math is 1.5%

And I have gotten a radiant apex from a non-bonus card but it was a gold card.

Can I see proof of this?

Wing

remember when cosmetics were in the game.

or if when you wanted something from the store you could just get that specific thing for a set price.



just wait till super markets adopt the loot box model "oh you wanted that bag of apples, well here you got 2 grapes! want to try again?"

burglar

Wing wrote: »

remember when cosmetics were in the game.

or if when you wanted something from the store you could just get that specific thing for a set price.

just wait till super markets adopt the loot box model "oh you wanted that bag of apples, well here you got 2 grapes! want to try again?"

Crates are one of the most detrimental things to ever happen to video gaming, especially in games where cosmetics can often represent your progress, because the devs seem to think it's ok to sell cosmetics, or encourage people to gamble for them. I don't know if they realize it, but they're sabotaging the very thing that generates value within the game.

We all play games because we have a drive to achieve something, and a fantasy world is appealing because everything is laid out in front of you; advanced players show off what you can earn if you try hard enough, there are quests with instructions, and other players to befriend or to help you, as well as various online communities and wikis that provide support. All of this under a ruleset everyone has to abide by, so you know that challenges are real challenges - everyone has to overcome the same obstacles to earn certain trophies, no exceptions.

That all changed with loot crates; the devs sold you out. They are taking the substance you came here for and are handing it to you for a resource that most people only have limited access too, that has very little to do with the game. They go even further though by trying to trick you into spending more and more, encouraging you to gamble, even though they control the drop rates! All that, only to see someone go buy what you have because they thought it looked cool. What does anyone achieve? The game is a fancy interface to a store.

With loot crates, everyone is the same, there is no identity, there is no character, really. Just a whole lot of hollow instant gratification that is nostalgic of the experiences we used to get from games. A bit dramatic, but... it kinda just hit me.

The_Last_Titan

Gamerscape2007 wrote: »

4. A bonus card will appear 17ish percent of the time. A radiant apex mount has a drop chance of approximately 1% on that card. 6. The average percent chance to achieve a radiant apex mount per crate is 0.6%

wouldn't that mean the radiant apex chance per crate is .17% since its 17% of 1%

The_Last_Titan

i'm about 500 or so crates total since they came out, no radiant apex's. They really NEED to put them purchasable for like 2k gems or something along with choosing which one you get or being able to switch them.

I'm not sure i would even use it. Why would i want a player to see this insane mount and look up how to get it or ask me and realize its never going to happen. That feels ***.

CMDR_Un1k0rn

Interesting research. Have an insightful OP.

Personally I stand by my tolerance for crates. They're cosmetic only and those ultra-rare radiants are functionally identical to the free level 10 horse.

zaria

Here is the statistic from 14K dragonscale crates.
https://www.crowncrates.com/dragonscale

Apex is around 2% in 1/50, For an specific mount its around 0.3% but in this case you are far more likely to buy it for gems after 60 something boxes.

Radiant apex on the other hand is 0.26% or 36 out of 14.000 crates, they can not be bought for gems.
You can hardly try to get them, they are lucky drops.

mairwen85

The_Last_Titan wrote: »

Gamerscape2007 wrote: »

4. A bonus card will appear 17ish percent of the time. A radiant apex mount has a drop chance of approximately 1% on that card. 6. The average percent chance to achieve a radiant apex mount per crate is 0.6%

wouldn't that mean the radiant apex chance per crate is .17% since its 17% of 1%

Other way round. 1% of 17%.

17% chance to get bonus card. Each bonus card has 1% chance.

firefrosti

Ok so I did $800.00 in crowns which led to buying how ever many crates that is , 21k crowns for me is $170.00 - I had roughly 12k crowns before , 60 crates for 20k crowns - So roughly 300-330 crates were opened I received 2 regular mounts and the emotes ect but no radiant apex , I did over $1400.00 over xmas and did not get one either all were spent on crates - these things are broken , you do the odds and it works out to about 1 out of 155 crates = radiant , nope not close . Chinese owners I think are to blame and the lack of handing anything out to a player base for supporting the game , That's probably why during events there are 400 million players running around botting and no one on during regular play . Think I'm done with this garbage

redbeard_howard

i pulled that new polymorph on a third card this weekend so....

dhboy123

firefrosti wrote: »

Ok so I did $800.00 in crowns which led to buying how ever many crates that is , 21k crowns for me is $170.00 - I had roughly 12k crowns before , 60 crates for 20k crowns - So roughly 300-330 crates were opened I received 2 regular mounts and the emotes ect but no radiant apex , I did over $1400.00 over xmas and did not get one either all were spent on crates - these things are broken , you do the odds and it works out to about 1 out of 155 crates = radiant , nope not close . Chinese owners I think are to blame and the lack of handing anything out to a player base for supporting the game , That's probably why during events there are 400 million players running around botting and no one on during regular play . Think I'm done with this garbage

so you spent $2200 on crown crates?

You need to go a see somebody about gambling. ZOS should also feel ashamed that somebody on their game has spent this amount of money on cosmetic mounts.

SickleCider

I don't think this is quite correct. I've definitely gotten "superior" items from the last two cards. I did, however, notice the apex mounts only ever come from the second or bonus card, and the sole radiant apex I have came from a bonus card. Edit: adding for the discussion: I've gotten two sweet rolls, both from bonus cards. They came from the same batch of 15 crates which was really strange.

Scion_of_Yggdrasil

Not. Surprised. One. Bit. Because crates and gacha mechanics are literally designed to be almost impossible so they can extract the most amount of money without actually giving you anything.

And for those who say you have no problem with crates because they are just cosmetics... if it was something you cared about theeeen would you all of the sudden think its evil and oppose it? Your argument to not care is like saying you don't care a dog gets run over on purpose because its not your dog.

There are several threads detailing why crates are not only ethically wrong, but just greedy, dishonest, etc. etc. etc.

Read up:
Crates are BS monetization

I'm sick of everything going into the crates

Calling BS...3 cards in a crate were mimic stones

I hate, and speak out against, crates every time I see the topic arise, and the OP anon source should be applauded for going through the effort of testing the drop rates.

And for those that think requiring the practice of posting drop rates will help... I recently left a mobile MMO that advertises 5% drop rates.... and they're still thriving and gouging players. And they have new heroes now, that made those 5% heroes irrelevant. Having to post the odds may discourage crates, but it wouldn't get rid of them, and getting rid of them is the only real solution.

dhboy123

Would be interested to see a reply by ZOS in here.

Mrs_Malaka

dhboy123 wrote: »

Would be interested to see a reply by ZOS in here.

No.

It would be a miracle.

Stx

firefrosti wrote: »

Ok so I did $800.00 in crowns which led to buying how ever many crates that is , 21k crowns for me is $170.00 - I had roughly 12k crowns before , 60 crates for 20k crowns - So roughly 300-330 crates were opened I received 2 regular mounts and the emotes ect but no radiant apex , I did over $1400.00 over xmas and did not get one either all were spent on crates - these things are broken , you do the odds and it works out to about 1 out of 155 crates = radiant , nope not close . Chinese owners I think are to blame and the lack of handing anything out to a player base for supporting the game , That's probably why during events there are 400 million players running around botting and no one on during regular play . Think I'm done with this garbage

I dont want to make this personal toward you, but this right here is an example of why ZoS gets away with this criminal and shameful game design.

As long as there are addicted (or possibly just filthy rich) players that will spend thousands of dollars for cosmetics, this will never change.

Really sad. All these cool mounts should be available IN GAME. Players might play the game more of they had cool stuff to work towards.

DarcyMardin

I just ignore crates. If I can get a cosmetic item that I really like with crowns, I have no problem spending the money, but no way I’m going to gamble for the *chance* to get some item.