On average, how long should it take to get a bis weapon from a dungeon?

Alliedrex

This is my first MMO so I am a bit uneducated in how long it takes to get items. Any time this question comes up people seem to shut down conversation with the term “rng”. However, as someone with several hundred runs of a single dungeon I think there is a legitimate discussion to be had. (The time it takes to farm is strongly dependent on loot tables) A good starting point is to look at the expectations of players. What I consider a long time may not, in fact, be a consensus among players.

So Assuming:
- Dungeons weapons only (no trials)
- Grouping is instant and the group is competent (all veteran players)
- The weapon is sufficiently powerful and rare (i.e. other players will be unlikely to trade the item)

How long should it take of pure grinding time to get a best in slot weapon? If you could be more specific, please specify and explain why.


PS - I would also like to open this up to developers as well and ask what they look for when deciding how long it takes to get an item. (I assume you use the statistics and data from dungeon runs to determine drop rates.)

GawdSB

Looool

With ESO it could be any number of those. Some people get them on the first couple attempts, some people (including myself) have been trying for weapons forever and still haven't seen them. The way ESO incorporates RNG into everything makes it this way.

Alliedrex

The intent of the question is not asking how long it will take me to get a weapon in a dungeon; but suppose you have a sample size of say, 100,000 runs how long would you want the average time to take?

Dr_Rektar

>200 hours

Mmm it took me 2 days to get sharpened mother sorrow inferno. But it took 2 month to get infused alkosh sword. It took me 3 month to get vma weapon i wanted.And still farming IA or moondancer sharpened inferno

redspecter23

Regardless of the average, I think there should be an end at some point. The RNG system here ensures that some people will never get what they are looking for and that part is what I find unacceptable. There is no end in sight. You never get any closer to your goal. RNG can keep you from a BIS weapon until you eventually leave the game either for this reason or any other.

BigBragg

I have never had one drop. I think I need to sacrifice more sheep to RNGesus.

Dr_Rektar

>200 hours

Here is an article to understand how this rng works
http://www.esopop.com/the-elder-scrolls-online-math-of-rng-problems-suggestions/

Alliedrex

So just to be clear. You guys like and think that it should take more than 10% of a work year to get a bis weapon. I would just like to clarify.

redspecter23

For those saying >200 you think it should take greater than 200 runs of veteran Maelstrom arena to get a particular weapon? (assuming 1 hour per run). It should take another 200 hours on top of that to get a single burning spellweave sword, then another 200 to get the second. At about 15 minutes per CoA1 run that's 1600 runs. I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, just trying to clarify.

EldritchPenguin

16-30 hours

Wait, is this thread asking how long I think it should take to get a BiS weapon, or is it asking how long it usually takes in the current game to get a BiS weapon?

Lukums1

51-100 hours

It took over 200 runs to see a sharpen leviathan dagger in COH.

It has been 200 + Runs on Bless Crucible and I've yet to see a sharpen sword dancer dagger.

So yeah do the math?

Jennifur_Vultee

I needed a sharpened Spinner staff...I ground for it for a month. After a month I spent 200,000 gold and bought one so...it took about a month and 30 minutes.

Now I think I've cornered the market on Spinner, Thunderbug and Salvation gear for the next 6 months since I have a huge supply to sell from trying to get the staff.

Voxicity

>>200 (the options grossly underestimate the time it should take, though not necessarily an entire order magnitude)

Took me like 50 runs of CoA1 to even see an impen BSW glove drop

Then i did 1 run one morning and someone dropped a sharp BSW inferno and gave it to me for free

Which means I can make a somewhat decent magsorc dps with crappy trait vma inferno on back bar

Which means I don't have to play stamblade any more even though I can pull 50k dps+ but no one wants a stamblade in vTrials

It's been a pretty good month for me so far

Dr_Rektar

>200 hours

redspecter23 wrote: »

For those saying >200 you think it should take greater than 200 runs of veteran Maelstrom arena to get a particular weapon? (assuming 1 hour per run). It should take another 200 hours on top of that to get a single burning spellweave sword, then another 200 to get the second. At about 15 minutes per CoA1 run that's 1600 runs. I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, just trying to clarify.

I recalculated to be more acurate. In vma i spend 90-100+ hours and got he one weapon 1 wanted in vmol/nmol i spend 210-215 hours before i got infused sword

Jabodin

31-50 hours

Dr_Rektar wrote: »

redspecter23 wrote: »

For those saying >200 you think it should take greater than 200 runs of veteran Maelstrom arena to get a particular weapon? (assuming 1 hour per run). It should take another 200 hours on top of that to get a single burning spellweave sword, then another 200 to get the second. At about 15 minutes per CoA1 run that's 1600 runs. I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, just trying to clarify.

I recalculated to be more acurate. In vma i spend 90-100+ hours and got he one weapon 1 wanted in vmol/nmol i spend 210-215 hours before i got infused sword

The question is whether it should take this long to get a bis weapon not what the rates are right now.

Dr_Rektar

>200 hours

But alkosh infused 1h is bis one

Oakmontowls_ESO

The problem with weapons in particular is there is only one drop of either jewelry or weapon at the end of the dungeon(let's assume 1/2). Then you have to hope it's the right set (1/3). Then the right type of weapon (1/12). And finally the right trait (1/8). Assuming that my math is correct that is a 1/576 chance per run to get the weapon you want or a .1736% chance per run not taking into account treasure chests or unique named items. There is a similar situation with armor drops but is much less of a problem because of the amount of chances to get an armor drop per dungeon.

NewBlacksmurf

Depends on how you're going after it.

It could happen the first time or the 75th time

Malamar1229

i wish there wasnt BiS

Dr_Rektar

>200 hours

Its the players who creating bis. Not devs. Feel free to theorycraft build where charged staff is bis

psxfloh

16-30 hours

Hey, this is a survey.. so tell him what you think, not what you think the 'correct' answer is!

Jabodin

31-50 hours

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Depends on how you're going after it.

It could happen the first time or the 75th time

OP is asking for average, what do you think the average should be?

Also for the OP I think another interesting question is how big should the standard deviation be.

phaneub17_ESO

>>200 (the options grossly underestimate the time it should take, though not necessarily an entire order magnitude)

Most of my choice weapons are either crafted or by scouring Traders for months finding the exact Set and Trait that I want, sometimes I get lucky and within the first couple of days I get what I need. I buy multiples if I can, usually the same weapon with different traits for different characters. While I'm not aiming for the absolute best weapons, I am going for what works with my character with the resources that are available to me. Having a crafter character that is 8/9 with all traits is a bonus.

wolfxspice

31-50 hours

it SHOULD take that long, but it took me over 900 runs of COA1 to get 1 sharpened 1H (axe) full chest run and the boss, about 10-15 minutes per run, the RNG in this game needs a rework.

Radinyn

>>200 (the options grossly underestimate the time it should take, though not necessarily an entire order magnitude)

I like big numbers

Zanen

The real problem is the traits should all be relatively equal in power and BIS should be situational.

Since sharpened is such a huge advantage over any other trait it's way too rare in the current game at 688? to 1, that's not a drop that can be reliably farmed, you could spend an entire patch farming it 16 hours a day and not get one.

Trait reforging. Then address trait balance.

Something like 50 runs.

Strider_Roshin

>>200 (the options grossly underestimate the time it should take, though not necessarily an entire order magnitude)

I have yet get a sharpened Maelstrom weapon, and I'm a flawless conqueror. That's this game's RNG in a nutshell.

Mojmir

Under 200 runs,time is the wrong variable

LadyLavina

Unfortunately with the RNG in this game, it's very difficult to say. I got an ideal trait Chudan helm the first time I ran vRoM after deciding I wanted one. On others things I've gone after, it has taken days.

kessik221

Every dungeon drops 3 sets with the last boss gaurunteeing a weapon or jewelry drop. Out of that gaurunteed drop there are around 200 combinations. So to get bis from a dungeon is like 1/200.

Saturn

ESO is the kind of game where you get the item you need and then vendor it when it's not the trait you want, compared to other MMOs where just getting the item is the hard part. I still honestly think traits are just about the worst decision ever, since this game has some of the most moronic gear grinding.

As an example, a friend of mine has been doing pledges on and off every week (not every day and not on several toons, mind), and it took him 8 months to get a shoulder he really wanted in the optimal trait. In that amount of time the item set had gone from being really good to being vendor trash.
I've had the same thing as well with lots of different stuff, like trying to get a sharpened inferno staff from vDSA. Ever since that place came out in 2014 I've beaten it maybe 100 times, possibly even more, and have yet to have it drop.

It helps that you can trade items now, but the gear grinding is still terrible and just feels like an artificial inflation of content to make it last longer. I wish they would make some kind of rare item you could use to change traits, or a token systems, or just anything to alleviate the endless grind. I hate that I have so many items that are the thing I want, but the wrong trait, I would like to be able to put them to good use, but ZOS says NOPE.