Chance for some good to come of Crown Crates.

Phinix1

While I still come down squarely AGAINST the idea of gambling as a marketing strategy, I do see an opportunity for some good to come of Crown Crates, if Zenimax can maintain a positive incentive for them.

There are some critical points they will have to hit on:

First, they need to carefully balance each presentation "season" with a reasonable expectation of legitimate reward. Second, they need to make that reasonable reward something the average customer can achieve with an investment of roughly 50%-75% of the Crowns gained from monthly subscription for a given season (3-4 month run on Crown Crate seasons like Atronach?).

What this means is that for say 5000 Crowns the average customer should be able to come away with a sense of it more or less having been "worth it."

I didn't have any sponsors like Delphia to donate for it, but I went ahead and spent 6500 Crowns on crates (a 5000 Crown box of 15 and a 1500 Crown box of 4). From my experience I can say I am cautiously optimistic of ZOS's ability to "maintain balance." Here's why.

Breakdown of "stuff I got that I would have bought anyway" (because that's what really matters):

First off, I have been and plan to remain a monthly subscriber. I believe this should always be the target amount of Crowns to balance around when trying to make these boxes "worth it." The crafting bag alone is reason enough but the 1500 Crowns per month adds up. Of course I'll inevitably spend them on some costume or pet I really like, some cosmetic thing, or maybe a mount if I don't have anything else to grab for a couple months. Also remember you get access to ALL the DLC so long as you remain subscribed.

OK, so when I spend several months worth on Crown Crates I ONLY do so with the EXPECTATION that I will end up with: Some costumes I really like, maybe some cool pets and cosmetic stuff, with a pretty good chance of getting a mount I like. If not from the cards themselves then at least from accumulating enough gems from extraction and duplicates to get them from the store. Plus, a GUARANTEE of being able to PICK one high value thing I really want.

Basically an equivalent or better ratio of the sort of stuff I would have bought anyway from the Crown store for my sub Crowns over the course of the run of that Crate season.

So, how does my 6500 Crown investment compare to straight purchases?

Well, I got the Evening Gown which I wanted anyway for my female vamp character. So that would probably have been like 1000 Crowns. I got the Purple Magic Pig pet (which I really like), and a Chub Loon which I would have got anyway because reasons. So there's another 1000 easily. I got a Storm Atronach Aura which is kinda cool to cast before Hurricane on my stamina Sorc, so OK cool, say 500 Crowns?

I got the "Clever Man" Hat and the Dwarf-Style Mage's Hat and the Fibonaccus Spiral hat and the Imperial Mananaut Cap and Goggles. The first two I definitely would have grabbed anyway for 700 Crowns each, and maybe the goggles... so say 1500 Crowns? That's 3000 of my 6500 already that I would have used anyway. So, what did I get for my other 3500 Crowns?

Battlemage Tribune Armor, Wrestler's Buzz Cut (hair cosmetic), Roostertail Frills and Jawbone Blades (Argonian things). Enveloping Scales (Argonian thing, kinda cool) and Shadow Striping Khajiit tats. TO ME, this all worth something like 1000 Crowns.

So, 2500 left for stuff I would have bought anyway...

I cash in all the potions and poisons and other consumables I don't want or need for Gems and combined with the gems I already got from duplicates, I end up with well over 100 Gems (140ish actually).

This is where ZOS gives me hope. They have redeemed themselves by putting some HIGHLY valued mounts in the critical 100 Gem range. Specifically, the Mind Shriven Horse which I have wanted for a long time, the Frosted Mare which I already had, the Clouded Senche (I have enough Senche though), the Red Pit Wolf (I already have a black and white one), a darker Lion mount, plus the Mind Shriven skin and some other cool stuff.

So, I get to choose ONE of those things (that important guarantee of being able to CHOOSE one high value thing to buy outright with Gems), plus some lower tier stuff for my other 40-ish Gems. What this meant for me is that I got the Mind Shriven horse, something which has always come bundled with an Imperial City collector edition package for like 4500 Crowns, for my remaining 2500 Crowns worth of investment.

That, for me, comes out as being overall well "worth it" for a 6500 Crown investment, even though I didn't "hit the jackpot" this time and get any of the sparkly Atronach mounts.

So, what does ZOS need to do to keep this momentum and keep customers feeling like they can buy at least one of the 5000 Crown boxes per season without regret?

• Make sure there are always a generous variety of high-demand, high-value items in the 100 Gem section, so people are left feeling that even without winning the jackpot, at least their investment allows them to straight up buy SOMETHING they would have really wanted anyway.
• Avoid having TOO many high value items that most people will have to choose between, leaving them without a sense of missing out on one or the other. *
• Keep the drop rate on cool cosmetics such that you end up getting a good amount of things you would have wanted anyway.

* For this to work people will still need to be able to grab any "limited time only" offers that come up within that season (3-4 month) window that they REALLY want, and have enough Crowns to buy at least one of the 5000 Crown boxes to still make that magic 100 gem "satisfaction threshold." This will probably come down to what sort of "limited time" offers happen that season and making sure people can afford at least ONE of those AND that only one limited time offer ends up being something they REALLY want, again to avoid that sense of "having to miss out" on something really cool.

So basically, to plan out the really cool offers and 100 Gem items for a given "season" to ensure that only one of each will be things that most people will REALLY want.

It is indeed a risky game, and the balance may come down to "will I buy that 3500 limited time mount I really want, or do I get an extra 1500 Crown crate bundle to go with my 5000 Crown bundle to make sure I hit that 100 Gem threshold to get that other thing I really want." It is very possible to hit the 100 Gem sweet spot even with average luck on a single 5000 Crown crate bundle, and it should stay that way.

So that's the math on my investment, broken down into Crown value for things I would have bought anyway, and this season I have to say, ZOS's math worked for me. Mostly because of the Mind Shriven horse which I have wanted for a long time but never wanted to spend 4500 crowns for it.

If ZOS can maintain that delicate balance, it could work out alright.

Phinix1

One thing I thought might improve the sense of ownership on an investment in Crates. For those that WERE lucky enough o get an Atronach mount, but maybe not the one they were after, make the highest tier items trade-able for other items of that tier, but only between other players. So, if one player had an Atronach Senche and another had the Guar, they could swap those with each other if they each wanted the other.

JKorr

Get the non-themed items out of the crates. The Red Pit wolf and cub, the black mane lion, clouded leopard have NOTHING "atronach" about them. Even if the non-themed items are limited time, let them be sold outright.

Themed items can be crown crate exclusive. The items that aren't shouldn't be.The people that want the lower level "consolation prizes" can buy them; the people who want the apex themed rewards can still try the clown crates.

Elsonso

My thought is that they realize how bad they are and remove them before Seaon Two. That would be some good. Sometimes businesses have to be self-destructive to realize what that term means to them.

Livvy

The thing is, I personally hated just about every cosmetic that was offered in these crates. And I love to collect and buy cosmetics that I like.

IMO, there needs to be a way to trade in items you don't "want" for crown gems, not just items you already "have."

Now I have a bunch of ugly cosmetic pets and outfits I have to sift through in my collections. I'm sure to many, that is not a big deal...but to me, I absolutely hate having ugly things forced into my collections tabs that I hate, and now see every time I go looking for an outfit to wear or a pet to use.

BomblePants

What I most worry about with the crates is that the odds of success might be changed down the line...so the chances of winning something desirable decreases in time. I'd like to be reassured that this isn't going to happen.

Acrolas

Phinix1 wrote: »

One thing I thought might improve the sense of ownership on an investment in Crates.

Every asset in the game is leased to you. You don't own any of it. It's a rental.

And that's where virtual blind boxes go horribly wrong. If I go to a store today and look at the new Lego Batman Movie blind bags and have no idea how to tell them apart, I can buy 20 of them and sell off what I don't want after I open them. I don't own the Lego Batman license but I have ownership of the physical product I just purchased.

Virtual blind purchases take advantage of that same addictive process ("Collect Them All!") and take away the ownership. A lot of media buyers just aren't informed enough to know that when they buy that movie, video game, or music album, they're only buying a lease to use what's on that disc. That 'hard copy ownership' mentality transferred over to digital downloads, and now some people believe that anything they buy in a game is their property. I bought it and received something, so it's mine, right? Nope. Not legally.

If I'm spending hundreds of dollars for the opportunity to rent something, I better be able to live in it or *** it.

But that's not all! (audience boos)

The other half is that while getting an Apex reward for just a few crowns creates value in the crate, spending a lot and not getting anything you like destroys value. This will explain exactly why you lost 2500 crowns worth of value:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sEkeEFH7uw
(Adam Ruins Everything - Why Gift Giving Makes No Economic Sense)

But that's still not all! (audience riots).

We shouldn't even need to be talking about that since that's an economic ownership, not rental, principle. But that's how much digital items both interfere with and mimic normal consumer habits. And this is why ZOS only has itself to blame if their Crown Store is not doing well or if they can't get their subscribers to use their accumulated crowns. First, we don't really know the CS design team so how can they possibly know what we really want to and would actually spend our money on? And secondly, with the crate concept they think they're creating value by pricing low with a chance of high yield. But for some people they're creating a neutral value and for some people they're creating negative value, both of which will negate people who are creating value by getting an apex reward on their first or second box.

But again, when you're renting instead of owning there is no real value to begin with.

Slurg

My preference would be for them to release the non-themed items for sale instead of making them be booby prizes for people trying to win those atronach atrocities.

The only thing that would make the new crown crate and gem system tolerable to me would be to allow us to directly purchase the crown gems to buy specific items from the interface. I don't want to fiddle around with these foolish crates. I just want to be allowed to buy some of the non-themed items that are currently locked behind them.

But I doubt either of those things will ever happen, after I have watched the majority of people who were against crates cave in and buy some for "testing" purposes or whatever reason they came up with to make themselves feel better about it. ZOS doesn't need my money when they have everyone else's.

Phinix1

A minor revision:

After testing this again with a family member spending most of their initial 6 month sub worth of Crowns on the 5000 crate box bundle, it seems the "sweet spot" (where you end up with at least 100 gems and are thus able to choose one of the Legendary items you want) is actually 6500.

So, one 5000 bundle and one 1500 bundle = Almost certain to get at least 100 Gems.

The primary reason is that after the 5000 bundle you start getting duplicates which are the main source of Gems. I felt really bad that I suggested buying the 5000 bundle and they ended up with only 64 Gems so not able to get the Legendary mount they wanted for 100 Gems, plus they got mostly worthless junk and cosmetics they didn't like.

They did buy 1 more crate and get the Ice Horse which was cool, but I can no longer recommend Crown Crates unless you buy at least 6500 worth.

If you aren't willing to spend that much then don't bother. There's a good chance you'll be disappointed.

Back to feeling Crown Crates are mostly (W)rip-off Stuff for me.