Strange I've done 20+ crafts at 80% and haven't failed once.

Is there something preventing you from doing 100% improvement? I haven't crafted anything higher than blues yet, so maybe there's a cap on the higher-level items?

I know that at the level of improvements I've been doing, I can use 5 tempers for 100% chance. Are you unable to do that?

TrapnoteTom wrote: »

I've failed when I had a 100% chance to improve.

Did you submit a bug report for it?

And if it's intended for us to still have a small chance at failure even at 100%, why would anyone risk it at 80%?

I've failed at 100% 2 or 3 times...not sure if it is a bug or if there is intended to still be a chance of failure at 100%...if it is the latter, why would it be labelled at 100% lol?

nobody should fail A 100 percent chance.

poodlemasterb16_ESO wrote: »

I would submit that as a bug as well.

I don't doubt that.

But I doubt you'd come to the forums starting a thread, stating that the numbers were broken because you were too successful, and it needed to be fixed.

Now, I've had about 8 successes in a row at 20%, so I'm sure other people have as well. Yet, I haven't seen any threads started because of it.

Now, that makes me think of two things:

1) The numbers are truly random, not cumulative. So, whether it's 10 failures in a row at 80% or 10 successes in a row at 20%, the numbers are functioning correctly.

2) You do, in fact, know that it's not broken; you're just not happy with it.

As for the failures at 100%... Personally, I have yet to see that. I'll look on YouTube and see if anyone's uploaded a video of it. But I also don't find it unreasonable to allow a small percentage of failure, regardless. It's not going to cripple anyone's gameplay.

For this to be any sort of help, we will need a large pool. You need to attempt improving 10,000 times or more and then come back saying it is broken. With such a low amount of data points there is no way to say if it is or isn't broken. At this point it is just luck or the lack of that is being used to say it is broken.

And for those that have honestly failed at 100%, report it as soon as it happens so there is a time stamp on the data and they can view easier. I failed at what I thought was 100% once but I noticed that I had clicked the + one too many times and it went from using 4 honing stones to 1 honing stone right before I hit R and I failed of course. Now I realize it was just server lag and I always wait a few seconds now before hitting improve. I've done probably 100+ improves at 100% and never failed after doing that.

poodlemasterb16_ESO wrote: »

Dragonheart013 wrote: »

It's already been explained to you how these percentages work, and the explanation given is the correct one. This is hardly the first game to use this concept. I hate to tell you that you've just gotten *really* unlucky.

The math is in no way a problem for me. It obviously is for some. I have a big enough sample to determine the numbers in the game are wrong. I have back up anecdotal evidence as well from our friend in the water.

No one has explained anything coherent at all.

Except for the fact that the math obviously is a problem for you, since you just said that no one explained anything coherent at all when one explanation was the factual mathematical explanation behind the function of a percentage.

Are you aware that you can theoretically flip a coin 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times and always get heads? Despite the 50% chance of getting tails, it does not mean you EVER will, as EACH time you flip the coin you STILL have only a 50% chance of getting it, regardless of the results of each other time you flipped the coin.

The idea that previous results effect the chances of the next outcome of the same action under the same circumstances is a flawed human perception. It's a trick of the mind, nothing more.

Actually, in the math, if every attempt has an eighty percent chance of succeeding, then with a really big sample, yes, even the average actual success rate should come out to be roughly an eighty percent success rate. However, the sample size often needs to be in the thousands if not the tens of thousands before the deviations get small enough for the actual success rate to start to flatten out around the eighty percent range. In smaller samples (even in the hundreds) with an eighty percent chance of success rate it is not uncommon to have the actual success rate still equal zero.

That said, computer "randomization" codes are never truly random but really based on any of a number of algorithms, some better at imitating "random" at others, but all of which have a pattern if you look hard enough. It would not surprise me if the algorithm they use is skewed so that some players are more "lucky" than others. MMO's and even computer games in general are rather notorious for this happening, especially if the algorithm they use factors in some sort of identifying info from the character or player as a randomization variable.
I myself have noticed that of my two characters, one tends to have a much higher success rate on nearly any "roll" then the other, so it would not surprise me at all to find out that the randomization algorithm(s) in ESO rely on one or more bits of info from the character or some similar flaw that makes some characters or players far more likely to be "lucky" or "unlucky" than others.

edited to fix typos.

Why waste material and not just go 100%?
You don't know RNG til you played FF14 and fail 5+ 99% in a row.