Failure after failure after failure......

michaelsf46_ESO

OMG first of all can we fix the fact that I have to reset my password every time I want to log onto the forums? Honestly....

But on topic.
80% chance to improve a weapon. I have had like 6 failures in a row. Thats hardly a 80% chance. Is this bugged or something. Very irritating seeing I cant seem to get any honing stones anymore from my hireling or from decon'ing items! I have now used them all....

SirAndy

It's a 80% chance each try. That's not the same as an 80% chance for 6 tries.

Viblo

so many people have difficulty understanding % and rng and luck.

michaelsf46_ESO

I have no difficulty understanding rng and/or luck. At all! Let me ask you something. What do you think the "rl rng" (if you will) is on 6 failures at 80% in a row? I so much less frustrating when we hide behind those old excuses, amiright?

Mishoniko

Odds are 3125:1 (1/(5^5)) of such a streak of bad luck.

michaelsf46_ESO

I knew there was a math guy that would run the numbers. Bad luck. But is it? Thats the question. Just an fyi too. Six tries ago is when I started counting. Cause I thought such a ridicules failure rate was weird. I had better "luck" before I trained temper expertise. Which is 2/3 atm. When I had to use 4 stones no problem. Now when I use 2 it doesn't seem to like that.

Brennan

Face it man - RNG hates you. LOL

Selling Honing Stones 3000g ea!!!

Locke_ESO

RNGesus has forsaken you

Alephen

while the odds of this occuring are small, the odds that this would occur between everyone who has tried is rather large, if 3k people have tried this someone *should* have had this bad of luck.

then psychology kicks in, the 2,999 who have had at least one success are far less likely to post than the one. thus we have several posts of the percentages not matching up to the results. and it seems like the stated percentages do not match up.

maybe they dont, maybe they do, personally i wouldnt waste a mat on less than 100% chance. but only if they collect server side statistics would we know if the numbers are according to tooltip, and even then RNG would more than likely be at least slightly off.

Phranq

This topic has come up before.. the tooltip LIES if you try to upgrade with less than 100% then you fail a lot more often than you should.. the last thread I saw, some poor sap was upgrading at 90% and failed 4 out of 5 tries...

columbineb14_ESO

I've given up on any upgrade less than 100%. I'm not great with probabilities, but I can do arithmetic, and even if I succeed at 80% on the second try, I'm out eight Hemming instead of five. (Never seem to have enough Hemming; always have too much Pitch and Honing Stones.)

I think the tooltip does actually lie about your odds though.

sevcik.miroslaveb17_ESO

Phranq wrote: »

This topic has come up before.. the tooltip LIES if you try to upgrade with less than 100% then you fail a lot more often than you should.. the last thread I saw, some poor sap was upgrading at 90% and failed 4 out of 5 tries...

It is bug, i does act as if you were using one piece for upgrade, but in case of failure, you will lose just one. I read somewhere that leaving and accessing crafting table.for each improvement prevents this

Lupinemw

I tend to never go above 75% most of the time and not failed yet.

Why do people think because something that didn't have a 100% rate is a bug.

Slantasiam

try 100% cheapskate... I hear that works every time.

Shiaxi

before actually confirming the action read the warning and verify that it mentions 80% success rate; I've seen my 100% success rate drop to 20% because of an annoying bug that resets the number of used upgrade materials to 1

lynzriches

I hear you! I bought 20 embroidery a few days ago to upgrade some new light armor I had just created. Wasted EIGHT. EIGHT!!! Upgrading one item. Was REALLY frustrating....however, I guess I just had a streak of bad luck because the other items I upgraded all succeeded at first try. Still. SUPER irritating.

Thepal

I've had around 80% when doing it. It seems to work fine for me. I think you are just that 1 in 3000 people that had the bad luck

Potenza

.

Abeille

The sample is not big enough to make any conclusions. It is probably not bugged.

huntgod_ESO

Remind not to let you watch my children though...